How Applying Probability Can Enhance Decision Making

How Applying Probability Can Enhance Decision Making

Instructions/Descriptions

How Applying Probability Can Enhance Decision Making

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Discussion Forum 3

In Discussion Forum 3, please identify the forum in the subject line of your posting (e.g., “Discussion Forum 3/[Your Name]”). Post your response to the discussion topic(s) by the date indicated in the Course Calendar, and comment on at least two classmates’ responses.

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Do you think applying probability can enhance decision making? Invent a business situation (once again, supply quantitative information that supports your narrative) that demonstrates the use of probability in sales forecasting, scenario analysis, or risk evaluation. Be sure the explanation clearly describes how probability data enhances meaningful input into the decision-making process by including a quantitative example. [MO2.3]

Your initial posting should be 200 to 300 words. Before posting, revise your composition to ensure that it is written in the objective third person and is free of grammar and structure errors. As this activity is a dialog exercise, engage peers by responding in a way that professionally supports or challenges the discourse.?

Risk Management Plan Assignment Project

Background

Develop a project risk register for General Motors Company. General Motors Company has over 215,000 union and non-union employees spread over six continents in 370 facilities and is headquartered in Detroit, MI. The company needs to replace their current Human Resource system (payroll, benefits, compensation, evaluation, employee/manager self-service). They would also like to add a Data Warehouse to analyze and run reports against their human resource data. Develop a risk register for this important project.

Assumptions

• The risk register should cover all phases of the project and work which includes: Planning, Analysis, Design, Development/Configuration, Data Conversion, Testing, Implementation and Post-Implementation.
• The risk register should be developed from the perspective of General Motors Company and the risks that the project is exposed to during the course of the project execution.
• General Motors Company has selected IBM as their implementation partner for this project.
• You may use one of the risk registers provided on Blackboard or develop your own.

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Assignment

Develop a risk register. The risk register must include the following columns:

1. Description of Risk Event – be specific
2. Likelihood or probability of the risk event occurring
3. Impact of risk event if it occurs
4. Risk Response Strategy (what specific actions will you take prior to the risk occurring to Mitigate, Transfer, Avoid, or Accept Risk). This should be multiple bulleted items, not a single item.
5. Risk Contingency Plan (what you do after the risk occurred to address the risk that has happened) – this is your plan “B”

The format for this should be a Microsoft Excel file intended for use by the project manager of this human resource system.

How Applying Probability Can Enhance Decision Making

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