Estimate of US GDP in Dollars

Estimate of US GDP in Dollars

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Select three countries (of your interest other than the US) and report on their latest “annualized” growth (GDP growth rate in percentage), employment (official unemployment rate), and inflation (consumer price index) measures. And, provide one or two sentences on your assessment of the economies (e.g. Doing well or not… And why?). 

Country 1:

Country 2:

Country 3:

• Study the Q4 2021 GDP release from the BEA (Links to an external site.).   Answer the following questions 
• What is the key difference between the “second” and “third” estimates?
• What is the Q4 estimate of US GDP in dollars?

What percentage of Q4 GDP is made up of Personal consumption expenditure?

What is your best forecast (guess) for Q1 2022 GDP annualized growth in percentage?

Explain your forecast

Study the March Employment Situation Summary from the BLS (Links to an external site.).  Answer the following questions 

• How much Non-farm payroll employment was generated in March?
• How many persons were employed part-time for economic reasons?
• Are they counted in the monthly unemployment rate?
• What is your forecast (guess) for the April unemployment rate?

Explain your forecast

• Study the Feb CPI from the BLS (Links to an external site.).  Answer the following questions 

What is the February CPI (annualized) rate for ALL items?

What CPI item has the largest decline in prices in February?

What CPI item had the highest increase in prices in February?

What is your best forecast (guess) for March CPI annualized rate?

• Explain your forecast
• What is Okun’s law?  How can this be used to help forecast GDP? 

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